It has taken perhaps a little bit longer than most people expected but in a few weeks time we will for the first time this season head to a Grand Prix where Verstappen could mathematically wrap up the championship but how can he do it?
Following the conclusion of the Las Vegas Grand Prix there will be a total of 60 points remaining to be won (A maximum of 52 from the Grand Prix and 8 from the Qatar Sprint Race). This means that as long as Max Verstappen leaves Las Vegas with a championship lead of more than 60 points he will be a four time World Champion and will have officially ended Lando Norris’ title hopes.
The simplest way that he can secure the championship is by finishing ahead of Norris, as Lando needs to outscore Verstappen by atleast three points this weekend to mathematically still be in with a chance so provided Max finished ahead of him – no matter what position the two are in – he will be Champion.
But what if things don’t go that straight forward?
If Norris wins the title fight is guarenteed to go to Qatar but if Norris doesn’t win the complications will entirely depend on how far behind (or ahead) Verstappen is.
Simply – if Max wins he is champion regardless of what Norris does, if Verstappen finished second, even with the fastest lap, then Norris needs to win to keep the fight alive.
If Max Verstappen finishes in third position, but does not manage to get the fastest lap bonus point, then first or second for Norris will ensure the fight continues to Qatar but if Max does get the bonus point then again Norris will need to win.
If Max finishes in fourth then any position ahead of him will be good enough to keep the championship mathematically in the balance however, if Max also get the fastest lap then Lando will need to secure first or second.
For the other possibilities please refer to the following table:
| Verstappen finishes: | Norris needs |
| 1st | Not possible (Max is the WDC) |
| 1st w/ FL | Not possible (Max is the WDC) |
| 2nd | 1st |
| 2nd w/ FL | 1st |
| 3rd | 1st OR 2nd |
| 3rd w/ FL | 1st |
| 4th | Top Three |
| 4th w/ FL | 1st OR 2nd |
| 5th | Top Three OR 4th w/ FL |
| 5th w/ FL | Top Three |
| 6th | Top Four OR 5th w/ FL |
| 6th w/ FL | Top Four |
| 7th | Top Five OR 6th w/ FL |
| 7th w/ FL | Top Five |
| 8th | Top Six OR 7th w/ FL |
| 8th w/ FL | Top Six |
| 9th | Top Seven OR 8th w/ FL |
| 9th w/ FL | Top Seven |
| 10th | Top Eight |
| 10th w/ FL | Top Seven OR 8th w/ FL |
| Fails to score | Top Eight OR 9th w/ FL |
What if Max fails to clinch the title in Vegas
Well it is almost a nailed on certainty that Verstappen will win the championship regardless he is still going to be close to a position where he is going to need Verstappen to DNF for the rest of the season while he scores top points every time.
If however, you though all the complications the Las Vegas Grand Prix were complicated then just wait for if the title fight continues through to Qatar where a maximum 34 points will be on the line.
