Just a few short weeks ago, the idea of Max Verstappen securing a fifth consecutive Formula 1 Drivers’ Championship seemed more like a nostalgic dream than a genuine possibility. After a rocky start to the 2025 season, the Red Bull ace was adrift, watching McLaren’s Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris build what looked like an insurmountable lead. But following two imperious, back-to-back victories at Monza and Baku, the conversation has dramatically shifted. The question is no longer if Verstappen can win races, but whether this powerful surge can legitimately bring him back into the title fight.
With McLaren and Piastri still holding a significant points advantage, Red Bull appears to have unlocked crucial performance from its once-troublesome RB21. This article examines whether Verstappen’s championship-winning pedigree, current formidable form, recent car upgrades, and the vulnerabilities of his competitors mean he is more than just a long shot for the 2025 crown.
After the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, the championship picture is clearer but far from settled. McLaren’s Oscar Piastri sits atop the standings, but his lead has been trimmed. His teammate Lando Norris remains a key part of the fight, but breathing down both their necks is Verstappen, who has slashed a 104-point deficit to just 69 in the space of two race weekends.
Verstappen’s 2025 at a Glance:
- Wins: 4
- Pole Positions: 6 (more than any other driver)
- Race Laps Led: Now leads Lando Norris in this metric for the season.
These statistics tell a story of resurgence. Earlier in the year, the Red Bull RB21 was a perplexing machine. It suffered from severe tyre degradation, a notoriously narrow operating window, and a lack of consistency that left Verstappen fighting for minor points rather than podiums. Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko even publicly labelled a title win as “impossible” after a frustrating Hungarian Grand Prix. Yet, something has fundamentally changed.
The catalyst for Verstappen’s revival can be traced back to the Italian Grand Prix at Monza. His dominant pole and victory there were initially seen as a one-off, a result of the RB21’s suitability for low-downforce circuits. However, his equally commanding performance on the tricky streets of Baku proved it was no fluke.
The secret lies in a series of critical technical adjustments. Red Bull introduced a significant floor upgrade at Monza, which, combined with setup changes, has allowed the car to run lower to the ground. This has unlocked a new level of performance, particularly in low and medium-speed corners where the car previously struggled. As McLaren Team Principal Andrea Stella noted, Verstappen is now frequently heard talking about “grounding” on the radio—a clear sign that the team has found a new, more aggressive way to operate the car.
These upgrades have transformed the RB21 on low-drag layouts, making it formidable on the straights and agile through tight turns. The lingering question, however, is whether this newfound pace will translate to the high-downforce circuits that make up a crucial part of the remaining calendar—tracks where the Red Bull has historically been less competitive this season.
While car upgrades have been vital, Verstappen’s driving has been nothing short of spectacular. He has converted his six pole positions into dominant victories with remarkable consistency, showcasing his ability to perform under immense pressure. Even when the RB21 wasn’t perfect earlier in the season, he extracted results that often flattered the car’s true pace.
His masterclass in the chaotic, crash-filled Baku qualifying session was a prime example. In treacherous, windy conditions that caught out both McLaren drivers, Verstappen delivered a pristine lap to secure pole. He then executed a flawless race, leading from start to finish and setting the fastest lap—a Grand Slam performance that underlined his mental fortitude. Gone are the errors and questionable strategy calls that plagued his early weekends; in their place is the clean, clinical execution that defined his championship-winning years.
For much of 2025, McLaren has looked almost invincible. But the Azerbaijan Grand Prix was, in the words of one analyst, their “first true clunker of the season.” The weekend exposed a vulnerability that Verstappen will be keen to exploit.
Championship leader Oscar Piastri had a weekend to forget. After crashing in qualifying, he jumped the start of the race, triggered his car’s anti-stall system, and dropped to the back of the grid. In a desperate attempt to recover, he misjudged his braking on the opening lap and crashed out—a rare but costly series of errors.
This handed a golden opportunity to Lando Norris to significantly close the 31-point gap to his teammate. However, Norris also struggled, qualifying a disappointing seventh and finishing in the same position, unable to make progress. He left Baku having gained only six points on Piastri, a missed chance that keeps the door wide open for Verstappen. While other challengers like Mercedes’ George Russell can play the role of spoiler, the primary battle remains between McLaren and the charging Red Bull.
With seven rounds and three sprint races remaining, a total of 199 points are still on the table. A 69-point deficit is steep, but far from insurmountable. To win the title, Verstappen needs to outscore Piastri by an average of roughly 10 points per weekend—a difficult but not impossible task, especially if McLaren’s drivers continue to take points off each other.
The upcoming schedule will be critical. Tracks that favour Red Bull’s newfound low-downforce strength could allow Verstappen to take huge chunks out of Piastri’s lead. Conversely, high-downforce circuits could halt his momentum. Sprint weekends in Austin, Brazil, and Qatar offer high-value opportunities to score extra points and apply pressure. Ultimately, Verstappen’s chances depend not just on his own performance but also on external factors: reliability, on-track incidents, and potential misfortune for his rivals.
The shift in perception within the F1 paddock has been palpable. Earlier this year, Red Bull’s Helmut Marko dismissed Verstappen’s title chances as “impossible.” Now, the narrative is being driven by their rivals. McLaren’s Andrea Stella has been unequivocal, stating, “Definitely Max is in contention for the drivers’ championship. We knew it and we got confirmation today.” Stella sees the threat as real, citing Verstappen’s skill, Red Bull’s proven development capability, and the sheer momentum they are carrying.
Verstappen, for his part, remains characteristically cautious. “I don’t rely on hope,” he stated after his Baku win. “69 points is a lot. So I personally don’t think about it. I just go race by race… and then after Abu Dhabi, we’ll know.” This focused, one-race-at-a-time mentality is precisely what’s needed for the monumental task ahead.
For Verstappen to pull off this incredible comeback, a series of critical factors must align perfectly:
- Flawless Consistency: There is no more room for error. DNFs, crashes, or poor strategy calls are simply not an option.
- All-Circuit Performance: The RB21’s upgrades must prove effective on high-downforce tracks, not just low-drag ones.
- Qualifying Dominance: Starting at the front is essential to control races and avoid getting tangled in midfield battles.
- A Dose of Luck: Verstappen will likely need his McLaren rivals to encounter reliability issues or make further mistakes to close the gap.
Given his recent dominance, the tangible impact of Red Bull’s upgrades, and his unwavering skill, Max Verstappen is undeniably a serious contender once more. He cannot be discounted. The driver who seemed out for the count just a month ago is now once more the most feared man on the grid.
However, the path to a fifth title is fraught with obstacles. The points deficit remains large, the RB21’s all-round performance is still unproven, and he will need a combination of near-perfect execution and favourable circumstances. He is not the favourite—that title still belongs to Oscar Piastri. But if Red Bull can maintain its development trajectory and Verstappen continues his relentless charge, what once seemed impossible is now a very real, very exciting possibility. The hunt is on.
